Gary Black warns SpaceX stock could fall below its $135 IPO price as insider lockups unwind
Veteran analyst Gary Black warned SpaceX shares could soon trade below their $135 IPO price — pointing to a lockup schedule that lets insiders (excluding Musk) sell up to 20% of their stakes right after the Q2 earnings call, with more unlocking in stages after that.
Gary Black, a longtime SpaceX valuation skeptic, has laid out a concrete scenario for why the stock could soon slip below its $135 IPO price.
The trigger is the insider lockup schedule. Right after SpaceX's Q2 earnings call, insiders excluding Musk can sell up to 20% of their holdings. More unlocks follow at the 70th, 90th, 105th, 120th and 135th days after the IPO, each freeing up another 7% — and another 28% unlocks after the Q3 earnings call. That structure means waves of potential selling pressure could keep hitting the stock for months after listing.
Black has repeatedly questioned SpaceX's valuation, arguing investors shouldn't be paying roughly 150x 2026 EV/EBITDA for the company. He said he holds no SPCX position himself, underscoring how far his skepticism runs against the bullish sentiment elsewhere.
Wall Street's targets span a wide range — JPMorgan has set a $225 price target while Morgan Stanley's bull case reaches $300, both well above Black's bearish call. For Tesla shareholders, this isn't a direct TSLA earnings signal, but it adds to the uncertainty around SpaceX's valuation just as Tesla-SpaceX merger speculation continues to circulate.
Summaries are prepared by the Tesla Briefing editorial team and may not capture every nuance of the original reporting. You are solely responsible for your own investment decisions.