EPS beat, cash flow back in the black — Tesla's Q3 brings margins home, not yet profit

How does the Cybercab fleet scale beyond Austin, and what is the regulatory path outside Texas with NHTSA's safety review still open?

Tesla launched in Austin only because it had a limited number of cabs; nothing fundamentally confines Cybercab to Austin. Dallas launches next month, and the same software then scales to other cities alongside the Model Y Robotaxis. Cybercab's AI was trained largely on data from the Model 3/Y platforms, so it is scaling well without a huge fleet, and the goal is to 'swarm' Austin. The NHTSA review and the regulatory path outside Texas were not addressed.

When will the Cybercab be available for customer purchase and ownership?

Moravy said Tesla aims to get Cybercabs to customers by the end of 2026, though all output so far goes to Tesla's internal Robotaxi fleet; it will start small this year to learn about delivery, ownership and fleet management in customer hands, then scale. Musk added that Cybercab will be offered primarily as transport-as-a-service with the vast majority Tesla-owned, while the Model 3, Y and Roadster are the cars customers would typically own.

Where do the cost per paid Robotaxi mile and the cost per Optimus unit stand?

CFO Taneja said Tesla is not yet at its $0.30 per paid mile target but sees a path there through scaling operations: utilization in its main markets is improving week by week, and pickup, drop-off and cleaning costs are being refined as the fleet grows. Cybercab is only in Austin today and will reach other cities before year-end. On Optimus, internal cost tracking is going well as the design matures and costs are trending closer to where Cybercab costs are expected to land, but with design iterations ongoing it is too early to call the target met. No dollar figure was given.

When can we expect FSD Unsupervised in customer cars?

The software for Cybercab and Model Y is the same and is coming to customers soon as part of the V15 release. What remains is ensuring customer Model Ys can operate within Tesla's geofences and fleet management so they can run fully autonomously; the first customer vehicles could join the Robotaxi fleet around Q2 2027.

What are Terafab's capital needs and key milestones?

Musk said Terafab will need 'tens of billions' in capital equipment through early 2028 and could exceed $100 billion over the long term; how the cost is split between Tesla and SpaceX is still to be determined. Taneja said most orders for the first set of research-fab equipment have already been placed, and Musk added that real production in late 2028 would be 'lightning fast by fab standards.' Prepared remarks targeted commissioning in H1 2027, a first test chip around May–June 2027 and volume chips in Q3 2028.

With unsupervised miles growing ~15% weekly toward ~10 million by year-end, how does that translate into revenue and gross profit — and what is the Cybercab line's ramp curve?

Taneja said continued exponential growth would make Robotaxi a significant part of revenue and profit in 2027; Musk said it won't move the needle this quarter, should become noticeable around Q2 2027 and could be a big factor by Q3–Q4 2027. No miles-to-gross-profit figure was given. On the Cybercab line (listed capacity above 125,000 units a year), Taneja said the design is easy to scale and the main constraint is regulatory approval; Moravy said the listed figure reflects the current running rate, actual capacity is significantly higher, and output currently matches the internal Robotaxi fleet's needs.

By my math FSD annual recurring revenue is approaching $1 billion — is that right, and what about retention and churn?

Taneja said the ~$1 billion figure is about right and that Tesla will share more FSD metrics as the business scales. Churn and retention figures will come later, since free trials and new-country launches muddy the numbers. He noted that the 75%-plus of North American deliveries signing up for paid FSD at delivery (up about 20% from Q2) comes with every North American delivery including one free month of FSD. Globally there are over 1.7 million paid FSD customers, and for the first time 50% are subscriptions.

Robotaxi pricing is below rideshare — is lower pricing a long-term plan to take market share?

Taneja said rideshare carries a human driver while Tesla builds its own vehicles, so the cost basis is fundamentally different, and reiterated the goal of taking over all forms of transportation. Musk said governments could block Tesla to protect domestic industries, but wherever it is allowed to operate freely he predicted, 'confidently,' that Tesla would handle a majority of passenger miles. No pricing figures were given.

I estimate paid FSD attach in North America at 30–40% — could competitors partnering with Nvidia or Qualcomm pressure FSD pricing, and what about China?

Taneja said the software problem is not easily solved, and Elluswamy added that the first 90% is easy to demo but the long tail is extremely hard, so he doubts competitors will match Tesla for several years. Showroom customers increasingly ask for FSD test drives rather than vehicle test drives. On China, Taneja said Chinese OEMs don't currently have the same lead, Tesla is working with regulators toward broader FSD approval, and it has published safety reports.

How is Tesla working with suppliers on semiconductor capacity, and is it taking more aggressive steps for a larger ramp — what is the capex impact?

Musk said the impact is not massive right now and capex is actually ending up a little lower than expected this year; it becomes more meaningful next year and reaches the tens of billions in 2028.