Q2 deliveries D-3 — estimates converge near 420K, but JPMorgan cuts
Three days before Tesla's Q2 delivery report on July 2, Wall Street estimates have narrowed to the 410–420K range — Goldman Sachs (420K, raised), Morgan Stanley (413K, raised from 373K), and Barclays (418K) all revised up on Europe's +47% YoY April recovery, while JPMorgan analyst Rajat Gupta cut his forecast from 430,500 to 420,000 on June 24, citing softer U.S. and China EV demand. The 22-firm consensus stands at 406,024; how much the result beats it will define TSLA momentum this week.
With three days until Tesla's Q2 delivery report, Wall Street estimates have converged to a tighter range than at any point this quarter. The 22-analyst consensus sits at 406,024 units — but the three largest bulls have all revised upward into the 413,000–420,000 range.
Goldman Sachs raised its Q2 estimate to 420,000 from 405,000, citing regional sales data pointing to outperformance versus the broader consensus. Morgan Stanley moved the most aggressively, taking its estimate from 373,000 to 413,000 (+40,000 units) after April European registrations came in at roughly +47% year-over-year. Barclays set its estimate at 418,000. All three cited the same European demand recovery as the primary driver.
JPMorgan moved in the opposite direction. Analyst Rajat Gupta cut the bank's Q2 delivery estimate from 430,500 to 420,000 on June 24 — a 10,500-unit reduction. Alongside it, Gupta trimmed his Q2 EPS estimate from $0.44 to $0.42 and his full-year 2026 EPS forecast from $1.95 to $1.90. The rationale: U.S. and China remain softer than a year ago; Europe's strength is real but insufficient to fully offset that weakness on a global basis. Notably, JPMorgan's revised estimate (420K) lands at exactly the same level as Goldman's raised estimate — two banks reaching the same number from opposite directions, which tells you where the market's conviction is centred.
For Tesla investors, the practical question is how far above the 406K consensus actual deliveries will land. A number in the 415,000–420,000 range would be in line with the upgraded expectations and largely priced in at current share prices. A clean beat above 420,000 would be a positive surprise; a result below 410,000 would reset the recovery narrative. TSLA closed June 26 at $379.71 — down more than 14% for the month — giving the delivery print an outsized amount of remedial power heading into the July 22 earnings call, where FSD revenue recognition, Optimus production timelines, and 2026 guidance will set the medium-term direction.
Summaries are prepared by the Tesla Briefing editorial team and may not capture every nuance of the original reporting. You are solely responsible for your own investment decisions.