Morgan Stanley holds $400 target, lifts bull case on autonomous trucking
Morgan Stanley kept its $400 price target and Equalweight rating on Tesla, but raised the bull-case scenario for its robotaxi and network-services business — citing record-high $6-a-gallon diesel prices (up more than 60% year over year) and a U.S. autonomous-trucking market it now pegs at up to $1.1 trillion by 2041, with software revenue alone reaching $17 billion if Tesla captures 82,000 Semi trucks by 2040.
In a note published Sept. 11, Morgan Stanley's freight-transportation team estimated the U.S. autonomous-trucking market could reach $500 billion to $1.1 trillion by 2041, with driverless fleets delivering roughly 20% net cost savings over human-driven trucks through lower labor, fuel and insurance costs.
A separate analysis published the same day noted that U.S. diesel prices topped $6 a gallon for the first time ever (up more than 60% year over year, per AAA data), sharpening the economic case for Tesla's Semi. Morgan Stanley estimates an autonomous electric Semi could cut cost per mile by 20% versus a human-driven diesel truck and more than double annual miles driven to over 215,000 (up 133% from current levels) — pushing annual profit per truck to roughly $202,000, versus about $37,000 for a human-operated diesel rig, a gain of more than 400%. If Tesla reaches 82,000 Semi trucks on the road by 2040 (a 13.5% share of the autonomous addressable market), that alone could generate $17 billion in software revenue and about $7.5 billion in incremental EBIT, excluding truck sales and charging-infrastructure revenue.
The firm left Tesla's core rating (Equalweight) and $400 price target unchanged, but raised the bull-case value it assigns to Tesla's robotaxi and "network services" business — meaning autonomous trucking is starting to factor into the stock's long-run upside case, even if it isn't yet in the base-case number.
Tesla is set to launch its Semi electric truck later this month. CEO Elon Musk told analysts on the July earnings call that Tesla aims to "get self-driving working" on Semi early in 2027 — if that self-driving push extends from Cybercab into commercial trucking, Morgan Stanley's market-size estimate could become a more concrete valuation input.
For now, though, this is a bull-case adjustment, not a rating or base-target change — Morgan Stanley's caution on near-term valuation is intact, reflecting how much uncertainty remains before autonomous trucking turns into real revenue.
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