Morgan Stanley: $6 diesel could unlock $80B in value for Tesla Semi
Morgan Stanley says record $6-a-gallon diesel makes Tesla's Semi economics more attractive — if Tesla reaches 82,000 Semis by 2040 (13.5% of the autonomous trucking market), software alone could generate $17B in annual revenue and $7.5B in extra EBIT. The bank kept its $400 base target but raised its bull case by $20 to $840, a sign that even cautious analysts see real upside in Tesla's autonomous-software bet.
Diesel prices topped $6 a gallon for the first time ever on Friday, Sept. 11 — more than 60% above year-ago levels, according to AAA data. With long-haul trucking fuel costs surging, Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco published a note titled "$6 Diesel...Enter Tesla Semi."
Working with the firm's freight team, Percoco built a new revenue model assuming Tesla charges fleets a monthly fee for autonomous-driving software — an estimated $12,000 to $18,000 per truck per month, or $0.85 to $1 per mile at 18,000 miles driven monthly.
Morgan Stanley projects the U.S. autonomous trucking market could reach $500 billion to $1.1 trillion by 2041. If Tesla puts 82,000 Semis on the road by 2040 — about 13.5% share — software alone could add $17 billion in annual revenue and $7.5 billion in incremental EBIT, excluding truck sales and charging-infrastructure revenue.
On the back of that scenario, Morgan Stanley raised its bull-case price target by $20 to $840, arguing that surging diesel prices alone could unlock roughly $80 billion in additional value for Tesla's Semi business. The bank held its base Equal-weight target at $400, signaling the upside remains far from guaranteed.
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