Citizens: Tesla's 2027, 2028 revenue estimates run 4% and 12% below consensus on slower Optimus, robotaxi ramp
Wall Street firm Citizens set its Tesla revenue estimates 4% below consensus for 2027 and 12% below for 2028, arguing the market is pricing in Optimus and robotaxi contributions arriving sooner than Citizens expects -- a more specific follow-up to the cautious view it first flagged when initiating coverage at Market Perform in July.
Brokerage Citizens published a note setting its Tesla revenue estimates 4% below consensus for 2027 and 12% below for 2028, arguing that optimism baked into Tesla's valuation from Optimus and robotaxi assumes both products reach meaningful scale sooner than Citizens believes.
The firm said Optimus brings a new level of production complexity versus building cars, expecting delays and higher spending as Tesla enters what it called the start of an 'Optimus investment cycle.' The note cited Elon Musk's own comment that "Optimus production will be extremely slow at first, as everything is new. This is not like making a car."
Citizens also noted a larger, dedicated Optimus factory is under construction at Giga Texas, targeted for higher-volume production around summer 2027 -- underscoring why it sees limited meaningful revenue before then.
Citizens first flagged this caution when it initiated Tesla coverage at Market Perform in July, warning Optimus and robotaxi revenue would trail Wall Street expectations; this note puts concrete percentages behind that view. For shareholders, it's a reminder that the timeline for these two growth bets to show up in the numbers may run later than consensus currently assumes.
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