Morgan Stanley: SpaceX at $100 would price AI business at zero
Morgan Stanley says a drop to $100 in SpaceX shares would mean the market is pricing its AI business — Grok and Cursor — at zero or even negative value. Analyst Adam Jonas nonetheless kept his $300 price target, more than half of it tied to AI, calling the gap between bearish sentiment and steady fundamentals a rare bullish signal amid this week's joint Tesla-SpaceX selloff.
SpaceX shares have pulled back since last month's record-setting IPO, falling 7.2% over five sessions through July 24 to close at $115.07 (see related card). Investors are also bracing for a lockup expiration next month that could release up to $116B in shares onto the market.
Against that backdrop, Bloomberg reports Morgan Stanley calculated that if SpaceX shares slide to $100, the market would effectively be assigning zero — or even negative — value to the company's AI business, which includes the Grok large language model and the Cursor developer tool.
Even so, lead analyst Adam Jonas kept his $300 price target intact, with more than half of that value tied to the AI segment. Morgan Stanley argued that while investor sentiment has grown increasingly bearish, the company's underlying fundamentals haven't changed nearly as much — a gap it sees as creating an attractive entry point.
For Tesla shareholders, this is technically a SpaceX story, but it's worth watching alongside coverage elsewhere in this briefing showing how much of Musk's net worth rides on the two companies' combined share prices. With both stocks pulling back together this week, Wall Street itself is split between an 'oversold' read and one still worried about fundamentals.
Summaries are prepared by the Tesla Briefing editorial team and may not capture every nuance of the original reporting. You are solely responsible for your own investment decisions.